Jan 5, 2020 — Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight — 2019 Annual Report. Global Economic Losses. Exhibit 1: Top 10 Global Economic Loss Events.
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Table of Contents Executive Summary .12019 Natural Disaster Events & Loss Trends ..2Global Economic Losses ..2Global Insured Losses .6Global Fatalities .10Natural Disasters De˜ned and Total Events .112010-2019: The Globe™s Costliest Decade ..122019 Natural Peril Review .16Focus Topic: Tropical Cyclone ..16Focus Topic: Flooding 21Focus Topic: Severe Weather 25Focus Topic: Wild˜re .28Focus Topic: Additional Perils 312019 Climate Review .33Global Temperatures & ENSO ..33Global Carbon Dioxide ..35Arctic Sea Ice .362019 Global Catastrophe Review .37United States .37Americas (Non-U .S.) .40EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa) 42APAC (Asia & Oceania) ..44Concluding Remarks ..47Appendix A: 2019 Global Disasters ..48Appendix B: Long-term Natural Disaster Trends .60Appendix C: Historical Natural Disaster Events ..62Appendix D: Tropical Cyclone Activity & Landfalls ..66Appendix E: United States Severe Weather Data .72Appendix F: Global Earthquakes .74Appendix G: United States & Europe Wild˜re Data .75Contact Information ..79About Impact Forecasting 79About Aon 80
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1Executive Summary 2019: Major humanitarian impacts; manageable ˜nancial costs Along with this report, we continue to welcome readers to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting™s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com USD232 billion 3% below average (21 st Century) 69 %global protection gap 51%of global insured losses were recorded in the United States Economic losses USD71 billion 6% above average (21 st Century) Insured losses Two costliest insurance events occurred in Japan total natural disaster events 409 Hurricane Dorian landfall in The Bahamas; tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane as the strongest landfalling storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean 41billion-dollar economic loss events 12billion-dollar insured loss events Wettest January to May U.S. rainfall average on record since 1895 fatalities from the Indian monsoon floods Œ the deadliest disaster of 2019 1,750 Second warmest year on record for land & ocean temperatures since 1851 Area burned by wildfires in Russia million hectares 10+ Area burned by wildfires in Australia 18.6+ million hectares 185 mph (295 kph) in Germany 46.0°C (114.8°F) in France 42.6°C (108.7°F) New all-time temperature record set 15.71 inches (399 millimeters) displaced in Africa following Cyclones Idai & Kenneth 2 million people +0.95°C (1.71°F) Above the 20 th Century Average
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2Global Economic LossesExhibit 1: Top 10 Global Economic Loss Events Date(s) Event Location Deaths Economic Loss (USD billions) Insured Loss (USD billions) October 6-12 Typhoon Hagibis Japan 9915.0 9.0 June – August Monsoon Floods China 300 15.0 0.7 September 7-9 Typhoon Faxai Japan 3 10.0 6.0 May Œ July Mississippi Basin Floods United States 0 10.0 4.0 Aug 25 Œ Sep 7 Hurricane Dorian Bahamas, Caribbean, US, Canada 8310.0 3.5 March 12-31 Missouri Basin Floods United States 10 10.0 2.5 June Œ October Monsoon Floods India 1,750 10.0 0.2 August 6-13 Typhoon Lekima China, Philippines, Japan 101 9.5 0.8 March – April Flooding Iran 77 8.3 0.2 May 2-5 Cyclone Fani India, Bangladesh 81 8.1 0.5 All Other Events 126 billion 44 billion Totals 232 billion 171 billion 1,2 Exhibit 2: Signi˜cant 2019 Economic Loss Events 3˜˚˛˝˙ˆˇ ˇ ˇ˛˚ ˚ ˚ 1 Subject to change as loss estimates are further developed 2 Includes losses sustained by private insurers and government-sponsored programs 3 Based on events that incurred economic loss equal to or greater than USD50 million. Position of an event is determined by the most a˜ected administrative unit or epicenter. 2019 Natural Disaster Events & Loss Trends
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3Direct economic losses and damage from natural disasters in 2019 were estimated at USD232 billion . This was reduced from recent elevated levels in 2016, 2017 and 2018 . The USD232 billion was 3 percent lower than the average (USD239 billion) and 5 percent lower than the median (USD243 billion) during the 21 st Century . The economic losses were a further 20 percent lower than the average and 12 percent lower than the median of the past decade (2009-2018) .In terms of economic losses resulting solely from weather disasters Œ which are de˜ned as events caused by atmospheric- driven scenarios Œ the global total was USD229 billion, which was 17 percent higher than the 21 st Century average and 28 percent above the median . 2019 was the 8 th costliest year in terms of weather-related natural disasters after adjusting for in˚ation .The costliest individual peril was inland ˚ooding at nearly USD82 billion . It was closely preceded by tropical cyclone (USD68 billion) . Five of the top 10 costliest disasters of 2019 were ˚ood-related: spring and summer ˚ooding in the United States, separate seasonal monsoon ˚oods in China and India, and a major ˚ood event in Iran . Those ˜ve events alone accounted for more than USD53 billion in direct economic impact .Three costly tropical cyclone events also occurred, each of which resulted in a minimal USD10 billion economic cost: Typhoons Hagibis and Faxai in Japan; and Hurricane Dorian in North America, with a majority of losses occurring in The Bahamas . Typhoon Lekima in China resulted in a loss of USD9 .5 billion . Additional major events included destructive tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean Basin Œ Cyclones Fani, Idai and Bulbul (Matmo), which collectively contributed to the global economic toll by more than USD14 billion . Due to many structures being poorly built in these areas, and limited insurance coverage, the a˛ected regions su˛ered a heavy humanitarian impact .Severe convective storms were also noteworthy as global thunderstorm-related damage topped USD30 billion for the tenth consecutive year . This remains one of the most consistent loss drivers on an annual basis, with much of the loss coming from events in the United States .The only other peril with aggregate damage above USD10 billion was drought, which was actually below the average since 2010 . Earthquakes were again not a predominant loss driver, as the costliest earthquakes of 2019 occurred outside of the Paci˜c Ring of Fire Region . The costliest and deadliest tremor occurred in Albania in November .The economic and insured loss estimates in this document are up to date as of January 2020. As new data is obtained and loss development occurs, this may result in future adjustments of individual event and/or overall annual loss totals. Reanalysis is a common research methodology to ensure that the most accurate and realistic views of events are cataloged for meaningful natural disaster loss analysis. Also, please note that in some cases data has been rounded, and this may result in some regional or peril totals being slightly di˜erent from overall aggregate listings. Exhibit 3: Global Economic Losses
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4At USD82 billion, the inland ˚ood peril was the costliest of 2019, and its highest year since 2013 . Other expensive perils included tropical cyclone, severe weather, drought and wild˜re; all of which generated losses above the median . All other perils were notably below long-term mean and median values (since 2000) .Exhibit 4: 2019 Global Economic Losses by Peril The costliest global peril around the world since 2000 has been tropical cyclone . This has largely been driven by extreme loss years in 2018, 2017, 2012, 2005, and 2004, which account for nearly USD909 billion of the USD1 .43 trillion total alone . Similarly, earthquake ranks third with very costly years such as 2011 and 2008, but also very low years, such as 2019 . Both perils are often driven by extreme annual volatility . Other perils have shown a steadier rate of increase, which suggests consistency during the past 20 years .Exhibit 5: Cumulative Economic Loss by Peril
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6Global Insured Losses Exhibit 8: Top 10 Global Insured Loss Events Date(s) Event Location Deaths Economic Loss (USD billions) Insured Loss (USD billions) October 6-12 Typhoon Hagibis Japan 9915.09.0 September 7-9 Typhoon Faxai Japan 310.06.0May Œ July Mississippi Basin Floods United States 0 10.0 4.0 May 27-30 Severe Weather United States 04.53.6Aug 25 Œ Sep 7 Hurricane Dorian Bahamas, Caribbean, US, Canada 8310.0 3.5 March 12-31 Missouri Basin Floods United States 10 10.0 2.5 October 20-21 Dallas Tornadoes United States 42.82.2March 23-25 Severe Weather United States 01.81.4March 10-11 Windstorm Eberhard Western & Central Europe 21.61.2September 17-22 Tropical Storm Imelda United States 55.01.2All Other Events 161 billion 36 billion Totals 232 billion 171 billion 1,2 Exhibit 9: Signi˜cant 2019 Insured Loss Events 3˜˚˛˝˙ˆˇ ˇ ˇ˛˚ ˚ “ ˚ ˛˚ 1 Subject to change as loss estimates are further developed 2 Includes losses sustained by private insurers and government-sponsored programs 3 Based on events that incurred insured loss equal to or greater than than USD25 million. Position of an event is determined by the most a˜ected administrative unit or epicenter.
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7Insured losses from natural disasters in 2019 reached USD71 billion and were signi˜cantly lower than the record USD157 billion in 2017 and USD100 billion in 2018 . This marked the ˜rst time on record for back-to-back years with insured catastrophe losses topping USD100 billion . However, despite the major reduction in 2019, payouts from public and private insurance entities were higher than both the 21 st Century average (USD67 billion) and median (USD59 billion) . Incurred losses were lower than the 10-year average and above the median .Weather-related incidents drove virtually all of the insured natural disaster losses in 2019 . This was due to a relatively subdued year for earthquake and tsunami occurrences that did not impact areas with widespread insurance take-up for the peril . All but USD265 million of the year™s insurance losses were due to weather events . The cumulative tally well exceeded both the median and average values for the 21 st Century .The protection gap, which is the portion of economic losses not covered by insurance, was the ˜fth lowest since 2000 at 69 percent . The global protection gap was nevertheless higher than in 2018 (62 percent), as many of the costliest events occurred in regions where insurance penetration is generally lower, such as China, India and Iran . The United States accounted for 51 percent of insured payouts in 2019 . In the past decade, the U .S. represented 53 percent of global payouts .Despite a slim majority of global insured losses occurring in the U.S., for the ˜rst time on record, the two costliest insured events of the year occurred in Japan . Consecutive strong typhoon events Œ Faxai in September and Hagibis in October Œ each rendered substantial damage in densely populated areas, including the greater Tokyo metro and Chiba Prefecture, due to high winds and exceptional inland ˚ooding . The combined insured loss was tentatively estimated at USD15 billion, though it was expected that a ˜rmer view and by-event breakout of ˜nal insured payouts will not appear until Q2 2020 . Hagibis and Faxai occurred as the local market was still coping from the record- breaking industry impact of Typhoon Jebi in 2018 .The costliest peril in 2019 for insurers was severe convective storm (SCS) . This only further underlined the growing prominence of this type of catastrophe for insurers . 2019 marked the fourth consecutive year of SCS payouts topping USD20 billion globally . As the case in most years, this total was mainly driven by costly hail and wind outbreaks in the U .S.After driving exceptional insured losses in 2017 and 2018, the wild˜re peril was again elevated in 2019 Œ but substantially less than the previous two years . Two notable ˜res in California caused roughly USD900 million in payouts . Historic bush˜res in Australia from November 2019 into January 2020 were set to become the country™s most expensive on record . To read more regarding available re/insurance industry capital and the health of the overall market, please refer to Aon™s Reinsurance Market Outlook .Exhibit 10: Global Insured Losses
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8The costliest peril for public and private insurance entities in 2019 was severe weather, closely followed by tropical cyclone . All perils except severe weather, tropical cyclone and ˚ooding generated insured losses that were below the long-term average values since 2000 .Exhibit 11: 2019 Global Insured Losses by Peril The tropical cyclone peril remained the costliest in the 21 st Century . To provide perspective on the heightened activity of 2017, 2018, and 2019, the aggregated payouts from those years account for 36 percent of the last 20 years™ worth of payouts for the peril, and 12 percent of all payouts for all perils since 2000 . Losses from severe convective storms ranked second and showed a consistent rate of increase at an accelerated pace during the last 20 years . Wild˜re, until recently a relatively insigni˜cant annual loss driver for the industry, gained prominence after record-breaking losses in 2017 and 2018 .Exhibit 12: Cumulative Insured Loss by Peril
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9There were 12 individual billion-dollar natural disaster events in 2019, which was above the average of 10 dating to 2000 and lower than the 19 events that occurred in 2018 . Four of these events were severe weather outbreaks in the United States, four were tropical cyclones, two were ˚ooding events in the United States, one was Windstorm Eberhard in Europe, and the billion-dollar mark was also exceeded by the exceptional bush˜res in Australia . Exhibit 13: Global Billion-Dollar Insured Loss Events Note: Exhibit 13 includes events which reached the billion-dollar-plus (USD) threshold after being adjusted for in˜ation based on the 2019 U.S. Consumer Price Index. Exhibit 14: 2019 Insured Loss Historical Comparison
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